Indian gold buyers may get some relief before Diwali as the US Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged, but a sustained decline in prices remains uncertain. Analysts expect bullion to remain volatile and largely range-bound in the coming weeks, with the possibility of further US rate hikes limiting its recovery.

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The Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate at 3.75–4.00 per cent on Wednesday, October 28, 2026. Markets are now watching US inflation data and the central bank’s next policy decision for clues about the direction of interest rates.

Gold does not generate regular interest income, making it relatively less attractive when interest rates and bond yields rise. A stronger US dollar can also weigh on international bullion prices. According to market experts cited in the supplied report, expectations of a December rate hike continue to create pressure on gold.

International gold prices were reported to be struggling below $4,120 per ounce, while domestic prices faced resistance around ₹1,46,000 per 10 grams on the Multi Commodity Exchange. A move towards ₹1,40,000 per 10 grams could offer buying opportunities, although the rupee-dollar exchange rate will influence the final price paid by Indian consumers.

Festive demand is providing some support to the domestic market. Industry representatives reported stronger buying across India, with domestic gold discounts narrowing to around $2 per ounce.

However, geopolitical tensions, US bond yields and currency movements remain important risks. A weaker rupee could also limit the benefit of falling international prices for Indian buyers.

For consumers planning Diwali or wedding purchases, the outlook suggests possible price fluctuations rather than a guaranteed fall. Buying in stages may help spread timing risk, while buyers should compare current rates, making charges and applicable taxes before purchasing.