Crude oil exports from West Asia surged above pre‑war levels in late September, even as tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz raised concerns over maritime security.
Shipping data from analytics firm Kpler revealed that exports exceeded pre‑war averages on September 24 and again between September 27–29, reaching between 19.5 million barrels per day (bpd) and 22.5 million bpd. This marks a sharp rise compared to the pre‑war average of 18 million bpd recorded between March 2025 and February 2026, before the outbreak of the U.S.–Israeli war with Iran.
The increase highlights the resilience of regional producers, who have managed to sustain and even expand shipments despite escalating risks. Attacks on vessels transiting Hormuz have intensified in recent weeks, threatening one of the world’s most critical energy corridors.
Analysts warn that while higher export volumes may stabilize global supply in the short term, the growing frequency of maritime assaults could disrupt flows and drive up insurance and shipping costs. The developments underscore the fragile balance between energy demand and geopolitical instability in the Gulf.
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