Crude oil prices could rise further over the next 10 trading days, with Brent crude potentially reaching $110 per barrel and India’s crude oil import basket touching $130 per barrel, according to SBI Research. The forecast reflects continued geopolitical tensions and supply-side risks that are keeping global oil prices elevated.

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In its Ecowrap report released on October 12, SBI Research estimated that Brent crude could increase from around $103.40 to $110 per barrel, while India’s crude oil basket may rise from approximately $127 to $130 per barrel. The projections are based on a recurrent neural network forecasting model used to assess possible price movements.

The report suggests that a sharp decline in oil prices is unlikely in the immediate future. Although prices could ease over time, the pace of any correction will depend on geopolitical developments, the availability of global supplies and the implementation of planned oil deliveries.

SBI Research outlined three possible phases for the oil market. Before November 3, 2026, prices could remain largely rangebound, with a slight downward bias. Diplomatic efforts and emergency releases from oil reserves may offer some relief, although the impact could take time to materialise. The US Energy Information Administration has also projected an average Brent spot price of $105 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026.

From after November 3 through April 2027, oil prices could gradually ease if scheduled supply deliveries take place as planned. US reserve deliveries were expected in November and December, while relief involving Russian diesel supplies was indicated to extend until April. However, the outlook remains sensitive to changes in geopolitical conditions and the actual availability of oil and refined products.

Higher crude oil prices are a concern for India because the country relies heavily on imported oil to meet its energy needs. A sustained increase in international prices can raise the cost of imports and put pressure on the country’s external finances. It can also complicate efforts to stabilise the rupee.

If elevated oil prices persist, the impact could extend to fuel costs, transportation expenses and businesses that depend on energy-intensive operations. The extent to which consumers are affected will depend on how global prices move and how the increase is transmitted through domestic fuel prices and other costs.

For now, SBI Research’s forecast points to continued near-term pressure rather than an immediate return to lower oil prices. The direction of the market over the coming months will depend largely on geopolitical developments, the pace of supply restoration and whether planned deliveries provide meaningful relief.