Food delivery and quick-commerce companies could remain relatively insulated from the impact of a potential merchant discount rate (MDR) on UPI transactions above ₹2,000, despite their heavy reliance on digital payments.

According to an analysis by Elara Securities, the relatively low average order values in these businesses mean only a limited share of transactions would cross the proposed threshold.

The brokerage has modelled a potential 0.4% MDR on UPI transactions exceeding ₹2,000. Under this scenario, the earnings impact is estimated at around 0.6% of FY27 EBITDA for Eternal, which operates Zomato and Blinkit, and approximately 0.4% for Swiggy.

For Eternal, Elara estimates an incremental MDR cost of ₹18.2 crore. Around ₹6.3 crore could come from Zomato’s food-delivery business, while Blinkit could account for about ₹11.9 crore.

The analysis suggests that high UPI adoption alone may not translate into a substantial financial burden when transaction values remain below the proposed threshold. Other consumer-facing internet companies with similarly low average transaction values could also see relatively contained exposure.

However, the eventual impact would depend on the final MDR structure, applicable transaction thresholds and the proportion of payments affected.