India is likely to have a significantly older population later this century as declining fertility changes the country’s age structure, according to Moody’s Ratings. The shift comes as fertility rates fall across much of the world, with nearly three-quarters of the global population now living in countries at or below replacement fertility.
Moody’s said India’s fertility rate has already fallen below the replacement level, signalling a demographic transition that could gradually alter the balance between younger and older age groups. The global fertility rate has also declined sharply, from about 4.9 children per woman in 1950 to around 2.2 in recent estimates.
For decades, population growth has supported economic expansion by increasing the size of the working-age population and consumer base. Moody’s noted that this demographic tailwind is now changing as fertility declines and populations begin to age.
The impact could extend to labour markets, public finances and consumer demand. A growing elderly population can increase demand for healthcare and social support while reducing the pace at which the working-age population expands.
The demographic shift is not unique to India. Moody’s said ageing is becoming an increasingly important economic issue globally, with countries at or below replacement fertility already facing consequences for labour supply and public finances.
For India, the changing age structure means demographic trends will become increasingly relevant to long-term economic planning. The country’s future growth will depend not only on population size but also on how its workforce, productivity, healthcare systems and public finances adapt to an ageing population.
